While the Oscar season is traditionally reserved for the prestige dramas of late autumn, Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” has shattered the calendar’s constraints, remaining the most talked-about film in the race nearly eight months after its April debut.
What began as a high-concept vampire thriller set in the 1930s Jim Crow South has transformed into a critical juggernaut, buoyed by a staggering 17 Critics Choice nominations and a dual-role masterclass from Michael B. Jordan.
As major outlets like Variety and Awards Daily begin to solidify their shortlists, the conversation has moved beyond the movie’s $360 million box office success to its historical potential. Now, the industry is closely watching to see if this “spring miracle” can withstand the late-year surge of traditional awards bait.
The Frontrunner Status: From Best Picture to Technical Dominance
Industry experts from Variety and Next Best Picture currently position “Sinners” as a double-digit nomination threat, a feat that would place it in the rare company of historic sweeps like “Oppenheimer.”
While its April release date was initially seen as a hurdle, the film’s box office haul and landmark “A” CinemaScore have sustained a narrative of popular prestige that is proving hard for Academy voters to ignore. As the 2026 race intensifies, pundits are specifically looking at Ryan Coogler’s potential to make history as the first Black director to win the top prize, a narrative that has only grown stronger as critics’ groups begin to announce their year-end honors.
The most significant buzz currently surrounds Michael B. Jordan, whose dual-role performance as twins Smoke and Stack is being framed as the definitive career-best milestone needed to secure his first Oscar.
According to Screen Rant and Awards Daily, Jordan is locked into a high-stakes clash of the titans against Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) and Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another). By playing two distinct characters in a single film, Jordan has provided the kind of degree of difficulty that historically captures the Actors Branch’s attention, shifting his status from a mere contender to a virtual lock for a Best Actor nomination.
In the technical and craft categories, “Sinners” is projected to be a juggernaut, with experts predicting a near-clean sweep of “below-the-line” nominations. Ludwig Göransson’s score—which recently netted five Grammy nominations—is considered the frontrunner for the win, while Autumn Durald Arkapaw’s 70mm cinematography is being hailed as the year’s most striking visual achievement.
When combined with the high-pedigree production design of past Oscar winners Hannah Beachler and Ruth E. Carter, the film possesses the “craft armor” necessary to remain a heavyweight even if the late-year dramas attempt to steal the spotlight.
Despite the picture’s undeniable momentum, the industry remains curious about how it will fare against its own “studio sibling,” Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another.” Both titles are under the Warner Bros. banner, leading to speculation from Rotten Tomatoes and Sasha Stone about whether the studio will eventually have to prioritize one campaign over the other.
However, with “Sinners” leading the Critics Choice shortlists in over 13 categories, the consensus is that the film has moved past the horror movie stigma and is now being judged as a singular, historical epic destined for the Dolby Theatre stage.