According to Deadline, pre-release tracking currently points to an approximately $85 million domestic opening weekend when the film arrives in theaters on July 10.
Why Disney’s New ‘Moana’ Faces Different Expectations Than ‘Moana 2’
The forecast places “Moana” among the stronger family releases of the year, but comparisons to its predecessor are inevitable. “Moana 2” became one of Disney’s biggest recent theatrical successes, launching with a record-breaking Thanksgiving debut that reached $225.4 million over five days in 2024. Against that backdrop, the live-action adaptation is entering theaters with considerably lower early projections.
The upcoming picture revisits the story that first introduced audiences to the Polynesian heroine in 2016. Directed by “Fosse/Verdon” filmmaker Thomas Kail in his feature directorial debut, the movie stars Catherine Laga’aia as Moana, while Dwayne Johnson returns to portray Maui after voicing the character in the animated films. The cast also includes Rena Owen, John Tui, Frankie Adams, and Jemaine Clement, who reprises his role as Tamatoa.
Industry tracking indicates that interest among family audiences remains strong, particularly among women over 25 and younger girls. However, those measurements are currently trailing the levels recorded by “Moana 2” at a similar stage of its release campaign. The production is nevertheless performing ahead of several recent family titles in early audience surveys.
Another factor shaping expectations is the crowded family film marketplace. Disney’s “Toy Story 5” and Universal’s “Minions & Monsters” are also competing for attention during the summer season, creating a highly competitive environment for family audiences. The projected opening for “Moana” is currently comparable to the debut of Universal’s live-action “How to Train Your Dragon,” which opened to $84.6 million.
Announced in 2023, the live action adaptation was produced by Johnson alongside Hiram Garcia, Dany Garcia, Beau Flynn, and Lin-Manuel Miranda. The picture follows Moana as she leaves Motunui and journeys beyond the island’s reef with Maui in an effort to restore balance to her community.
