Final voting has officially begun for the 98th iteration of the Academy Awards, marking the last stretch before Hollywood’s biggest night. After months of precursor awards, guild wins, surprise upsets, and shifting momentum, the industry’s perceived frontrunners are beginning to crystallize — though a few categories remain anything but locked. As insiders, critics, and awards analysts weigh in, here’s where the major races currently stand and who appears best positioned to take home Oscar gold.
Best Animated Feature
The race for Best Animated Feature appears to be a victory lap for KPop Demon Hunters. After sweeping the Annie Awards and dominating the critical circuit, the film’s vibrant visual language and cultural resonance have made it the definitive choice for voters. While Disney’s Zootopia 2 holds the nostalgic vote and the indie darling Arco has the support of the high-brow animation community, industry insiders suggest the momentum for the Netflix hit is simply too massive to derail.
Best Original Screenplay
This category is a dead heat between the visceral storytelling of Sinners and the eccentric indie spirit of Marty Supreme. While Sentimental Value remains a strong dark horse with the Academy’s global membership, most analysts believe Ryan Coogler will take the prize for Sinners. Given the film’s record-breaking nomination haul, the Academy is expected to reward Coogler’s ability to weave complex social themes into a gripping, original thriller.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Paul Thomas Anderson is the heavy favorite for One Battle After Another. Adapting Thomas Pynchon’s prose was long considered a mission impossible, but Anderson’s successful translation of the dense material has left voters awestruck. While Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet remains a significant threat for those who prefer traditional literary craftsmanship, industry pundits agree that Anderson’s status as a veteran who has yet to win a writing Oscar gives him a nearly unbeatable overdue edge.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
The momentum for Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another has become an avalanche following her Golden Globe victory. Her performance is widely considered the undeniable turn of the season, though she faces a veteran challenge from Amy Madigan in Weapons. Insiders note that while Sentimental Value’s Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas has the support of the critics’ circles, Taylor’s transformation has captured the industry’s imagination in a way that historically leads straight to the podium.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
This category is a clash of titans, with Stellan Skarsgård currently holding a narrow lead for his nuanced work in Sentimental Value. His primary challenger is Benicio del Toro, who provides the emotional anchor for One Battle After Another. While some believe a potential sweep for the latter could carry del Toro to his second Oscar, the sentiment among pundits is that Skarsgård’s career-best turn in a prestigious international darling makes him the one to beat.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
In one of the most competitive races in years, Timothée Chalamet is narrowly edging out Leonardo DiCaprio. Chalamet’s portrayal of a ping-pong prodigy in Marty Supreme has been hailed as a career-defining performance, making him a favorite for a younger, more diverse Academy. However, Michael B. Jordan remains a massive threat for Sinners, especially if the film’s historic nomination total translates into a night of early technical wins.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
All signs point to a coronation for Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. Her portrayal of Agnes Shakespeare is a masterclass in grief and resilience that has dominated the precursor awards. While Rose Byrne earned rave reviews for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You and Emma Stone remains a perennial favorite for Bugonia, Buckley’s performance is viewed as the soul of the season, making her the safest bet on the ballot.
Best Director
The overdue narrative reaches its peak here, with Paul Thomas Anderson widely expected to finally take home the trophy for One Battle After Another. After decades of influential filmmaking, the industry consensus is that this is Anderson’s year to be recognized. Ryan Coogler remains a formidable rival given the sheer scale and technical achievement of Sinners, but recent DGA results suggest the Academy is ready to honor Anderson’s legacy.
Best Picture
The night’s top prize has become a two-horse race between the record-breaking 16-time nominee Sinners and the critical juggernaut One Battle After Another. While Sinners has the event movie energy and a historic level of support across all branches, One Battle After Another has been sweeping the major guilds (PGA, DGA, and SAG). Most insiders believe the preferential ballot favors the broad appeal of Anderson’s epic, but a late-night upset by the genre-defying Sinners would be a fitting end to a season defined by breaking the rules.