With only seven days remaining until the golden statues are handed out on March 15, the 98th Academy Awards race has transformed into a fascinating duel between prestige drama and high-concept genre filmmaking. This year’s nominations have shattered records—most notably with Sinners securing a historic 16 nods—yet the final sprint feels wide open. While some categories have near-certain locks, others are so tightly contested that a single surprise could reshape the narrative of the entire evening. Here is where the major races stand as we enter the home stretch.
The Battle for Best Picture: Prestige vs. Popularity
The top prize is currently a “two-horse race” between Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another and Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. Anderson’s film has dominated the precursor awards, winning the Golden Globe, BAFTA, and the crucial Directors Guild of America (DGA) prize. However, Sinners recently surged back into the conversation after winning the top ensemble prize at the Actor Awards (SAG). While the industry respect for Anderson is immense, the cultural impact and box office dominance of Coogler’s supernatural thriller make it a formidable “spoiler” that could pull off a late-night upset.
Best Actress: The Jessie Buckley Juggernaut
If there is one absolute “lock” this year, it is Jessie Buckley for her performance in Hamnet. Having swept the Critics’ Choice, Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG awards, she has completed the rare “Grand Slam” of the awards circuit. While Rose Byrne received rave reviews for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You and remains a critical darling, Buckley’s portrayal of Agnes Shakespeare has become the undisputed narrative of the season. It would be a historic shock if anyone else’s name is called.
Best Actor: A Three-Way Deadlock
The Best Actor category is easily the most volatile of the night. Early in the season, Timothée Chalamet was the prohibitive favorite for Marty Supreme, but his momentum stalled after a dry spell at the recent guilds. This has cleared a path for Michael B. Jordan, whose dual-role performance in Sinners just won him the SAG award. Not to be overlooked is Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), who remains a heavy favorite among the Academy’s international voting block. This race is effectively a coin flip between Jordan’s technical feat and Chalamet’s transformative charisma.
Best Supporting Categories: Veterans and Newcomers
In the Supporting Actor race, Sean Penn is the frontrunner for his scene-stealing work in One Battle After Another, though veteran Stellan Skarsgård is right on his heels for Sentimental Value. On the actress side, Amy Madigan holds the lead for her haunting role in Weapons, benefiting from a “career achievement” narrative. However, Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) and Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) have both won major precursors, making this one of the hardest categories to predict with certainty.
Director and Craft: Anderson’s Time?
After decades of nominations without a win, this appears to be the year Paul Thomas Anderson finally takes home the Best Director trophy. His victory at the DGA is often the most reliable predictor for the Oscar. On the craft side, expect a split: Sinners is favored for its innovative Sound and Score, while the reimagined Frankenstein is the heavy favorite to sweep Production Design and Makeup & Hairstyling. Meanwhile, Netflix’s K-pop Demon Hunters looks untouchable in the Best Animated Feature category.